Geopolitics and macroeconomics: essential tools for today’s leaders.
Geopolitics and macroeconomics have now become essential components of the strategic skill set expected of today’s leaders.
For a long time, geopolitics was little more than background noise — a peripheral factor observed from a distance but rarely integrated into day-to-day decision-making. Business operated in a space seemingly shielded from politics, in a globalized world where the free flow of goods, capital, ideas — and sometimes illusions — was taken for granted.
That world no longer exists.
In recent years — and more abruptly since the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the election of Donald Trump — geopolitics has emerged as a central and structuring force in the world of business. No one is safe from systemic shocks anymore.
The likelihood of rare events has significantly increased and must now be factored in, just as Nassim Nicholas Taleb warned us years ago.
That’s why today, we hear more about resilience in supply chains than about optimization.
The return of war to European soil, rising tensions between the U.S. and China, fragmentation of value chains, competition for critical resources, regionalization of trade, economic sanctions, technological nationalism, energy conflicts, cybersecurity threats… all of these elements now shape a new geography of risk — but also a new map of opportunities.
It’s no longer just about “doing business” abroad, but about understanding the world in which we’re doing business — a world that is neither stable, nor homogeneous, nor neutral, where a small country like Ukraine can take out billions in aviation assets using a few drones and organizational genius.
The Company as a Geopolitical Actor — Whether It Likes It or Not
Even companies that view themselves as apolitical or purely local are being caught up in these dynamics. Whether it's producing, selling, hiring, innovating, or communicating — every action is now subject to issues of sovereignty, regulation, identity, or cultural norms.
And that’s not all: in a world where governments expect companies to align with national interests, where consumers demand ethical commitments, and where shareholders monitor ESG risks, the modern leader becomes — willingly or not — a political strategist.
We’ve seen this clearly in the success of China’s soft power in recent years, or the way the relationship between Trump and Musk has directly impacted Tesla’s stock price.
The Strategic Leader Must Adopt a Geopolitical Lens
This new context calls for a new leadership posture. A leader who develops a geopolitical mindset can:
Decode the invisible power dynamics behind partnerships.
Identify instability zones before they erupt into full-blown crises.
Anticipate regulations, sanctions, or market closures.
This broadened vision builds antifragility and agility. Leaders don’t need to become geopolitical experts — but they must cultivate a worldly awareness, a strategically informed perspective.
That means making certain bets, carefully evaluating the geographic alignment of production and revenue, and introducing new criteria into strategic decisions.
For example, Putin clearly understood how to strategically link macroeconomics and power, allowing him to maintain economic stability far better than many had predicted. In contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron long underestimated macroeconomic dynamics, viewing them as a technical matter for experts in Bercy (France’s finance ministry).
Expanding the Strategic Field
Geopolitics is no longer an intellectual luxury — it’s a core strategic competency of the 21st century, just like macroeconomics, digital transformation, or AI integration.
Again, this isn’t about becoming a geopolitical analyst, but about cultivating an informed, nuanced, and global perspective.
The company is a global actor. Its leader is its interpreter. They must learn to read between the lines of maps, to listen for early signals, and to understand the game of power and the aspirations of people.
We recommend reading the three fascinating books by Giuliano da Empoli, to better integrate uncertainty into your decision-making and stay the course in this uncertain yet interconnected world.
#geostrategy #leadership #coaching